Sunday, November 18, 2007

Kneejerk Knotes: Nolan's biggest blunder yet

I don't care that it almost worked out. Mike Nolan's decision to kick a field goal and attempt an onside kick with less than 2 minutes to play in today's loss against the Rams was absolutely indefensible, and it proves a notion that I've long tried to refute: Nolan is not and never will be a good in-game coach.

Not even the fourth-and-inches last year against the Rams was this bad. There was at least a legitimate argument for making that call: i.e., the defense was playing well and Nolan figured they could keep the Rams out of the end zone. It didn't work, but there was at least some logic behind the move. This time there was no such defense, no such logic.

Trailing 13-6 with less than 2 minutes left, the 49ers found themselves in fourth-and-10. The defense had been playing well, sure, but kicking the field goal only made it a four-point game, meaning the 49ers still had to score a touchdown. Nolan then compounded the problem by opting for an onside kick. Since they still needed a touchdown, Nolan with this move essentially made the statement that the 49ers recovering an onside kick was more likely to happen than the 49ers converting a fourth-and-10.

Way more likely, apparently. Because if the fourth down didn't work, the defense could have stopped the Rams deep in their own territory and given the offense decent field position. If the onside kick doesn't work, the Rams have the ball in great field position, and even without a first down, they can pin the 49ers deep and force them to go the length of the field with no timeouts (which is precisely what happened).

The reason Nolan's strategy was so misguided is this: If you're going to rely on your defense to get you the ball back, the onside kick is the last thing you should do. There are two options. Either go for the fourth down in the first place, knowing that there's enough time and the ball is deep enough in Rams territory that your defense can get you the ball back with decent field position; or kick the field goal and then kick off deep, again knowing that your defense will stop them and give you good field position. By trying the onside kick, Nolan cost his team about 60 yards and still left them needing a touchdown.

So really, Nolan didn't even display great faith in his defense. He displayed unreasonable faith in Joe Nedney's onside kicking abilities — which, while better than most, should still be seen as nothing more than a last resort in a late-game situation like this.

I haven't been in favor of firing Nolan as of yet, but this type of incompetence when it comes to managing game situations is extremely disturbing. Look at the way Dilfer moved the ball down the field on that last drive. Now, imagine if that drive had started at the 49ers' 40-yard line instead of their 10.

Nolan is to blame for this one, and I've just about seen enough of his so-called strategy.

1 comments:

The True King Carlos said...

Yeah, I like Nolan, but I too have had enough of these strange decisions that he makes. His conservatism on offense and critical game decisions has just about run its course with me, I was hoping this year would be different.