Line of Scrimmage: Next year's goal for Nolan

This week Ben and J.R. ponder what kind of improvement the 49ers need to show next year for Mike Nolan to save his job.

Ben: Well, I think my record on the issue of Coach Nolan's tenure is pretty clear. I'm not completely sure why John York feels the need to bring him back next season.

Here's what I think will happen though. Mike Singletary, sensing that John York is the owner nobody wants to work for, will leave the 49ers in the offseason for either a head coaching job or simply a defensive coordinator job where he gets more money. That will create a Norv Turner-sized hole in the coaching staff, making things just as bad as they are now.

As for what the team needs to do, well, I think it's pretty clear. It needs to win. And I'm not talking 8-8. The 49ers need to make the playoffs next year for Nolan to remain as coach. That's the only measurable progress that can be expected of a team that tanked so spectacularly this season. You have to figure there will be several holes to fill in the offseason (defensive line, cornerback, kick returner, etc.) and it remains to be seen whether they can get the right pieces to fit their puzzle.

Nolan should have one head next to his on the chopping block if the 49ers go belly-up again next season: Alex Smith. It's arguable that while Smith has been putrid, Nolan has done little to advance his quarterback's abilities since he joined the 49ers. The only demonstrable progress we saw Smith make was under Norv Turner, offensive guru extraordinaire. He's gone backwards this season. I know Nolan is a defensive guy but, to be the man in the NFL, you have to be able to help your whole team and when things regress so severly in one of your big name players, you have to shoulder the blame.

Maybe it's the fact that the 49ers are so bad right now that has me dreading another season under Nolan. Maybe he's not the problem. Who knows. All I do know is that another season like this should mean wholesale changes in both the front office and the coaching staff. Whoever thought Ted Tollner was the answer is dreaming. If you absolutely must, give Nolan one more year but it's got to be made crystal-clear to him that he is coaching for his job next season.

J.R.: Pretty tough to argue with what you've said, Ben. Without a doubt, Nolan has to get this team back into the postseason to save his job, but I'm going to take it one step further and say that he's got to get them there and show some kind of reason for belonging there. I think if he sneaks them in with a 9-7 record and immediately gets bounced by a large margin in the wild-card round, he's still going to have an uphill battle in justifying his salary.

That works both ways though. If the NFC has an upward swing and all of a sudden getting to the playoffs requires 11 wins or more, I think Nolan can miss them at 10-6 and still keep his job. It hinges purely on the progression of the product on the field. Clearly, the offense has been a problem, and it looks like the defense becomes undisciplined at times. But if he can find the tools to make the offense at least respectable and turn the defense into a top-flight unit, then he should get to stay on for a fifth season.

Simply put, I think if Nolan can bring some kind of harmony to this team, as opposed to the disjointed mess we're seeing now, and get them moving in an obviously positive direction, then the Yorks will let him play out his contract. The odds are against this the way things look right now, but in the roller-coaster ride that the NFL has become, you can go from rags to riches essentially overnight. The Saints last year and the Packers this year are perfect examples of this.

That being said, the Niners may be closer than we all think, and if a few chips fall in the right places, this nightmare season could be just one more dark stroke in what will become a really beautiful picture in the long run.