The 2008 NFL Draft is just around the corner, and the 49ers Observer has a new feature for your reading pleasure. Leading up to day one of this year's draft, your Observer writing team will be chalking up various predictions on just what might happen when the San Francisco 49ers make their first pick on April 26. Who will they take? What might go down as a result? Read on...
San Francisco 49ers 2008 Draft Tracker
THE GROVES SCENARIO
So we're going to start out this new feature with the most predictable draft scenario of them all. "The Groves Scenario" is based around the notion that Nolan and Scotty will do everything short of selling their souls to land Auburn OLB Quentin Groves in the first round of the 2008 NFL Draft.
WHY IT COULD HAPPEN
If you could pick one player that best fits the needs of the 2008 49ers that will probably be available in the latter part of the first round of this year's draft, it's Quentin Groves.*
The simple truth is that Mike Nolan's intricate plan to install a bad ass, suffocating, sack-tastic 3-4 49er defense is extremely close to being complete. Nolan has pretty much covered every area on the defensive side of the ball with competent bodies except for one postion- weakside outside linebacker, where the primary responsibility is to rush the passer.
The lack of a consistent pass rush has been a problem for the Niners since before Nolan took over the team in 2005. The healthy return of OLB Manny "Man-Law" Lawson from his season-ending ACL injury last year will no doubt help to get the pass rush going on the strong side. Still, one would have to think that Nolan would like to replace OLB Tully Banta-Cain, who is the Niners' current starting (and consistently disappointing) weakside outside linebacker (picked up prior to last season from the Patriots via free agency).**
In short, Groves could potentially replace Banta-Cain and be the true sack-artist Nolan needs to complete his 3-4 defense.
WHY IT MIGHT NOT HAPPEN
Groves' stock has been rising and falling over the past few months, and it is hard to predict whether or not he will fall to the 49ers at pick #29.
For starters, there are other teams on the prowl trying to get Groves. The Pittsburgh Steelers are the first big threat with the 23rd pick, as Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin made all buddy-buddy with the linebacker at Auburn's Pro Day earlier this month. While the idea of the Steelers using their first round pick to grab Groves would be considered a definite reach, it could very well happen. However, I personally believe that Pittsburgh will focus on their offensive line in the first round (especially considering the departure of Alan Faneca to the Jets via free agency), and Groves will slide further towards the Niners at #29.
The other big threat in the Groves sweepstakes are the Jacksonville Jaguars. They need Groves as much as the 49ers do to help create pressure on opposing quarterbacks. I am personally very scared that Jacksonville could swipe Groves without much of a problem, but there is also a strong chance the Jaguars will instead pounce on the best safety available. The safety position is not much of an immediate need for the rest of the teams in the first round (besides maybe the Philadelphia Eagles or Green Bay Packers), and the Jaguars could be one of the first teams to take a player at that position.
HOW IT COULD HAPPEN
So could Groves fall to the 49ers at #29? It's definitely possible, but it will be somewhat of a crap shoot come April 26. There are many reasons Groves could slide, ranging from his recent heart surgery to doubts concerning his ability to play at a high level consistently in the NFL.
Earlier this month, there was a part of me that thought Nolan and Scotty would potentially sacrifice a pick or two of the Niners' draft next year in order to move up and grab Groves in the first round somewhere before the #29 spot. While Nolan and Scotty are no strangers to draft day shenanigans, some experts believe that Groves could still be available in the beginning of the second round, even dropping to the 49ers' second overall pick at #39. Thus, one would have to think that Groves is not worthy of draft-shenanigans, and the Niners should probably just play it straight in their quest to get Groves in the first (or second) round of this year's draft.
But will they go for Groves if he's available when pick #29 comes on the board? I guess you'd have to think so, but it will probably depend on what top-tier offensive lineman are still available at that time. I'll discuss "The O-Line Scenario" in the next installment of the feature.
*I'm sure Nolan would prefer to somehow magically grab Ohio State DE Vernon Gholston, but sadly that's not going to happen in this lifetime. Gholston and his massively huge pipes will be long gone by pick #29.
**Third-year player OLB Parys Haralson could be end up being the guy to replace Banta-Cain if Groves is taken before pick #29. Haralson has yet to prove he is to be truly feared by opponents in terms of his ability to get to the quarterback, but I believe he has the potential to be the guy. However, right now it's safe to say he's still developing.
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